Removing a long-time defense minister isn’t unusual, but arresting five senior staff members is a significant move, especially in Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
Two weeks ago, Sergei Shoigu was ousted as defense minister, triggering a wave of arrests among the defense ministry’s top officials under the banner of an anti-corruption campaign.
Timing And Context
The timing of these arrests and reshuffle is notable. After nearly three years of setbacks in Ukraine, Russia has recently gained an advantage. Successful offensives in the north near Kharkiv and victories in the Donbas region have turned the tide.
Ukraine’s struggles, including manpower shortages and dwindling ammunition, worsened by delays in U.S. military support, have contributed to Russia’s improved position.
So Why Shake Up The Defense Ministry Now?
Analysts tell CNN that the defense ministry is one of the most corrupt in Russia. State media has exposed massive military contracts and criticized senior officials for their opulent lifestyles. One analyst described the situation as a “complex polycentric game,” tied to timing and Putin’s pursuit of victory against the West.
Prigozhin’s Influence
Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group and once known as “Putin’s Chef,” casts a shadow over this shake-up.
Before his death, Prigozhin openly despised Shoigu and Russia’s top general, Valery Gerasimov, accusing them of corruption and incompetence. He led a mutiny aimed at ousting Shoigu and Gerasimov but ended up challenging Putin’s authority instead. Putin branded Prigozhin a traitor and seized his assets before Prigozhin died in a mysterious plane crash with his senior advisors.
Since then, Putin has kept the ministry’s corruption and failed invasion of Ukraine out of public view to maintain his image of control.
Putin likely waited for his re-election in March before making these changes. The reshuffle came shortly after Victory Day on May 9, where Putin and Shoigu appeared together in a seemingly friendly manner.
Although Shoigu is no longer defense minister, he remains within Putin’s circle as the new secretary of the security council.
Focus on Ukraine
Tatiyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told CNN that the truth of Prigozhin’s corruption claims is irrelevant. In Russian politics, only interests matter, she said.
Putin’s main interest is securing a win in Ukraine, making the defense ministry crucial. By appointing civilian economist Andrey Belousov as the new defense minister, Putin aims to speed up and economize weapon procurement.
Russia’s 2024 budget allocates 6% of GDP to defense, the highest in modern history, surpassing social spending, signaling a shift to a wartime economy.
Gerasimov’s Position
Rumors swirl about the fate of Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces and another target of Prigozhin’s criticism. Stanovaya noted that while there are rumors Gerasimov might be dismissed, his current reprieve gives him a chance to secure his position.
Analyst Komin suggested that Gerasimov’s survival may be due to the lack of a suitable new role that wouldn’t damage his reputation.
In Putin’s Russia, the president remains determined to win in Ukraine, showing that while the supporting cast may change, Putin is ruthless in his quest for victory.
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