Gower Street Analytics has raised its 2025 global box office forecast to $34.1 billion, up from $33 billion, largely driven by the success of the Chinese animated film Ne Zha 2, which has now become the fifth highest-grossing film of all time globally.
The revised estimate, released just ahead of CinemaCon (March 31-April 4), marks a 13% increase from 2024 and a slight 0.5% rise from 2023. However, it is still 13% behind the pre-pandemic average from 2017-2019.
China’s box office projection has been adjusted upward by $1 billion to $7.6 billion, largely due to Ne Zha 2. This places China’s market 30% ahead of 2024, though 1% behind 2023 at current exchange rates.
The North American forecast has been slightly lowered from $9.7 billion to $9.5 billion, following a lack of breakout hits in early 2025, although it still represents 8% growth from 2024 and 5% from 2023.
The international market outside China has been increased by $200 million to $17 billion, though this increase was partially offset by lower-than-expected Q1 results.
These projections will be discussed further at Cinema United’s annual convention in Las Vegas this week
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